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Old 11-29-2007, 06:24 PM
soop soop is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 154
Default Re: $11 NLTRN: Top pair gets all-in on the turn

I think getting all in on the flop is ok. There are plenty of draws and weaker 9's you beat and not a lot of hands that beat you (overpairs tend to raise pf, 93,83 tend to fold). I mean if he is kinda passive you can assume a check min raise is a big hand, but given no reads it seems ok.

Assuming you don't fold, calling > shoving flop > 3betting to 500 IMO.

Let's take 3betting to 500 vs shoving. Most bad players will call a 3bet with something like 67. Then they'll fold the turn to a push if you miss. The problem here is if you raise to 500, opp actually does have odds to call with something like 67 - if you push any turn. Then he can call the pushes when he hits and fold otherwise. On the other hand calling a shove with 67 would be a big plus for you.

Some quick EV calcs against 67:

EV(opp folds flop): +440
EV(opp calls flop push): +892
Ev(opp calls flop | folds turn if he misses): +400


If he doesn't have a draw, raising to 500 might keep a weak pair in. That's kinda questionable though; I get snap called by like A8 here sometimes. (Prolly makes a difference if this is a turbo or not)

Personally, I like calling the best. It's more read dependent b/c he has to semi-bluff a fair amount, but it traps extra money in the pot and people will put you on a draw and call more.
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