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Old 10-12-2007, 08:02 AM
Guruman Guruman is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: still a NL fish - so lay off!
Posts: 3,704
Default Re: good or bad handreading?

I wouldnt repop that pf.

your hand is going to be dominated by a lot of a tags utg pfr range, you aren't going to want to raise enough to cause both of them to fold pf, and you're deep enough that playing an oop in an inflated pot postflop is asking for trouble. Even though utg's raise is small, you should still respect the position that it came from (and the size should alert you to shenannigans with big hands some % of the time anyway)



given that you're multiway with a speculative and potentially dominated hand I'd say just call and look to hit a flop.

on the flop you have the suspicious utg raise/flop check range in there, and the tightish co coldcall and flop 2/3 bet range in there.



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It looks like a bad spot for a move for a few reasons:

---you're on a pure bluff with no redraws

this in and of itself isnt a terrible thing if you're in a good bluffing situation, but I think you're not.

---you haven't seen enough action to determine fold equity

utg is still on the slow side of the AA AK part of his range/line. If he's not on one those two specific hands, he's probably likely to fold even if you just call, so no effort is really needed to bluff him but he can still be lying in the weeds with a repop hand.

CO has represented a caught A here, and you should be inclined to believe him. He's tight and showed no aggression pf, but was unafraid to put a pot building bet in vs the both of you on that board. It's not always Ax or two hearts, but its one of those two hands quite a lot.

You're repping a STRONG ace there, so maybe he does pitch those two if he's inclined to believe you and looks at the remaining stacks. he may be in a tough spot there, but we don't know if he's capable of this level of thought, and he'd have to be in order for this play to make sense.



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I dunno. Its an interesting spot because you might be able to use the presence of the pfr in there to feign more strength and squeeze CO off of a wider range of hands, but you risk getting lit up by utg when he's slowplaying a big hand, which IMO is a big chunk of his range. You also risk CO not being able to hand read and making the call anyway with an A or two hearts.

I guess in the end if you can make this move profitably you should probably find another table. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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