Re: Surprise, surprise..I get raised on a paired board OOP [200NL]
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Check/call is better, you're not folding anything better by betting here. After cehcking the turn, his range is flushdraws/air and hands like 88 or 99 going for pot control. So your riv bet really sucks, since it won't ever fold the hands that went for pot control. If you think that a sig. portion of his range is air/ then c/c; if you think that a sig portion is hands better than yours but you think you can make them fold, then pot the river. No almost 2/3 potting it here IMO.
All that said, I would need some history/read to call the flop and make a play on the turn. It just needs so many things to work out for it to happen. Specifically, villain would need to fire the turn again with air or whatever, which is fairly improbable. If you wanna make a play vs a relative unknown here, the play is to 3bet/call the flop.
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I think you nailed it. Good arguments, ty.
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