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Old 11-28-2007, 11:31 PM
Stinger88 Stinger88 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 828
Default Re: What\'s the REAL reason(s) so many \"top\" players are busto?

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I realized i didn't complete explain my concept of the ceiling. The reason there is a ceiling in the stock market at around 500 million dollars is that at that point your much to large to invest in smaller companies, because you either will end up owning the company or not allowing enough shares for the market to dictate the value of it you also can't invest small portions in lots of companies because of the ammount of time involved in researching the companies, you'd need a very very large team of great investors looking in many different markets. This basically forces you into investing in large companies, though the problem with this is that, large companies are generally held by lots of people so the shares are generally very accurate in representing the company worth. Similar to sports betting on the NFL, unless your the very best, the lines are so close that the average bettor can not make any money off them.

So when were discussing this in regards to poker, the pool of players obvs shrinks as you move up in limits and you can't take advantage of all the donkeys at the 10nl level when your playing but the possibility that a good portion of the 9 players you will play against at your 10nl table will suck is very high, well the proportion of donkeys at each subsequent level decreases probably to some percent, although there may be some random varation. So when you start to reach the 100/200nl (some random level i choose) then the probablity that you will sit with a donkey has dratmatically decreases, and your now happy if a player has a couple of leeks. So obv everyone knows the variance increases as skill increases.

The next factor is that if your treating your money and time spent at poker as an investment, than you'll be looking at your entire bankroll as your principle and trying to see how you grow it. Now the if you consider a poker player who has 1 million dollars, you want to grow it, well playing 25/50plo table and you win $5 000 so you now have $1 005 000 dollars. Congrats you just increased your bankroll by .5% so obv its kinda pointless so you step up to the 250/500plo tables and win $50 000, you just increase your bankroll by 5% now you feel like you have something in your pocket. However now your have 5% of your entire bankroll on the table and when you loose well it works a lot different from winning...you ever time you win 50k 250/500plo its not 5% anymore.
(going to use smaller amounts to make it easy)
100nl $2000br
win $100 = 2100br +4.7%
win $100 = 2200br +4.5%
win $100 = 2300br +4.3%

Now watch when you loose

loose $100 = 1900br -5.2%
loose $100 = 1800br -5.5%
loose $100 = 1700br -5.9%
loose $100 = 1600br -6.25%

So as can be seen the compounding works against you on the way up, you need to keep more money in play to keep the same size of returns, however, as you loose money you can't keep at the same level of play without threating larger and larger percentages of your bankroll each time you play.

I was going to write some whole thing about internet leting the very best players play each other and yadda yadda yadda but i wno't cover that now.

I hope this helps answer the question at bit better though

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good thing I never loose
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