[Spee]

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So if my conjecture is correct, I would like to hear good reasons why this is the case. If it's not correct, I want to hear those reasons as well.

This should make for a good discussion and thanks in advance for the help.

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Hello Mason,

With respect to the start of the tournament, IMHO, it is intuitively obvious that your conjecture is correct. Typical tournament payouts are more or less linear whereas doubling up is exponential. At some point, the maximum expectation will be reached regardless of the amount of doubling. Stack size will increase at a faster rate than expectation.

With respect to latter stages of the tournament, I don't think this is so much the case. For example, does doubling up further increase expectation once into the money? I would think that it most definitely would (or is that stating the obvious??).

When I was thinking about your conjecture, the immediate analogy that popped into mind was Tiger Woods in golf. After all, he is the greatest tournament player of the current generation, if not all time.

For 2005, he played in 21 PGA events and made 13 top 10s and 6 wins. As an aside note, he also dogged it and missed the cut in 2 events.

So let's say Tiger is roughly 2:1 or 2.5:1 to win the event (as he usually is rated by the bookies here in the UK). He then promptly goes out and eagles the first hole to take a two shot lead on the field. Does that increase his expectation? Maybe a little but not too much. He is after all quite a bit better than even money to finish in the top 10. But it is also very early in the tournament.

Now lets say it is Saturday afternoon, and he has already made the cut (i.e., in the money) and is now tied with 9 other players for the lead. These 10 players together are 4 shots clear of the rest of the field. Now Tiger goes out and eagles the first hole to take a two shot lead over his 9 closest competitors and 6 on the rest of the field. Does that increase his expectation? I would say yes, proably by a lot.

So now back to poker, the greatest tournament player is now already somewhere in the money. Does a double increase his expectation more so than at the beginning of the tournament? Yes, I think intuitively that it would have to. Or maybe this is restating the obvious as well??

Just my own wrong opinion FWIW ...

Cheers,
Spee