Re: Conjecture and Question
The really simple answer is that our skill edge doesnt multiply along with our chips.
Basically, we calculate EV by (for an average player)
The sum of:
% of total chips * payout for 1st place
% of total chips * payout for 2nd place
.....
= Our Expected Value of playing the tournament
So, something else has to be at play here for a better player.
They calculate their EV by:
% of total chips + SKILL ADJUSTMENT * 1st place payout
% of total chips + SKILL ADJUSTMENT * 2st place payout
..........
So for Mason's example, the player has a skill advantage of
X. Which is just how much more on average they expect to finish in certain spots.
So, when we double our chips, we double the portion of the above calculation that is from % of total chips. If we do not also double the "SKILL ADVANTAGE" Factor, the EV does not double along with it.
Intuitively, this makes sense. The further we progress through a tournament, the more our % of total chips effects the outcome. If we did in fact try to double or "skill adjustment" along with total chips, we would quickly reach an unreasonable EV.
So, it comes down to the decay of the skill adjustment factor. It is mathematically impossible for it to double, but if it were to remain constant, It quicky becomes unimportant in decesion making.
Actually, that doesnt feel very different from how many pros play. The edge they require before risking all of their chips getting smaller and smaller as the field condenses, converging to anything greater than 0, at a point.
That being said, I find it hard to believe that many people have a 4x edge in a large MTT, and 99% of the players on this board are going to use this as an excuse to play weak tight
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