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Old 07-06-2007, 11:04 AM
danny8 danny8 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 888
Default Re: [NL50]JJ on Thigh board. wud u fold here?

im in a pokerstove mood today!

my range for him after hes called your pfr and raised your cbet would be:

TT-44,ATs,A8s,A4s,KTs,K8s,K4s,QTs+,Q8s,J9s+,
Jh8h,Js8s,T7s+,97s+,8h7h,8s7s,ATo,A8o,A4o,KTo+,
K8o,QTo+,J9o+,T9o

you're 75% favourite over this range so your options are either call with the intention of getting it in later, or 3bet.

if you 3bet i'd say his calling range is:

TT,88,44,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,Js9s,T8s+,97s,ATo,KTo,QTo ,J9o+,T9o

you're still 60% favourite so i think 3bet is good. even if he only calls with: TT,88,44,ATs,KTs,T8s,ATo,KTo you're well ahead.

your 3bet needs to be larger, i prolly just push, but you could make it $30 or so and shove any turn... he might be the type of player thats more inclined to call smaller raises without realising hes commited to the hand.

there are so many cards on the turn that you dont wanna see; any A, K, Q, T, or a 7 is gonna oput you in a really crappy spot since he seems capable of firing again with stuff you beat... 3betting the flop doesnt turn your hand into a bluff vs this guy because he'll call with worse. against a decent tag then 3betting here is a bluff, against this guy its for value.

EDIT: my ranges dont include any air hands that hes raising with which im sure he does every so often. which is more of a reason to call and c/r turn, i just htink JJ is too vulnerable to do this with here. i dont hate it, just prefer a 3bet!
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