[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero pukes and ???

[/ QUOTE ]Shabamabam – That’s the way I’d feel about it.

I think Villain has the Broadway plus two or three clubs. If so, Villain’s hand falls into one of the six following categories. (We’ll stipulate that Xc and Yc cannot be Ac, Kc, Qc, Jc, 8c, 7c, 5c)

AcKcQnXc
AcKcQnXn
AcKnQnXc
KcQnXcYc
KcQnXcYn
KnQnXcYc

Villain beats you with any hand in the first five categories, but loses if holding a hand in the sixth category.

AcKcQnXc...... 1*1*3*6 = 18 ways
AcKcQnXn...... 1*1*3*32+1*1*3*2/2 = 99 ways
AcKnQnXc...... 1*2*3*6 = 36 ways
KcQnXcYc...... 1*3*6*5/2 = 45 ways
KcQnXcYn...... 1*3*6*32+1*3*6*2/2 = 594 ways
KnQnXcYc...... 2*3*6*5/2 = 90 ways.

Thus if I am correct in the read (Broadway plus two or three clubs), Villain beats you 18+99+36+45+594 = 792 ways, while you only beat Villain 90 ways. In that case, you’re behind by a factor of 792/90 = 8.8. I’d expect you to lose almost nine times as often as you will win.

Meanwhile you’re getting great pot odds (~279 to ~107, or almost three to one). And there is a chance Villain simply puts you on a Broadway without clubs and wants to knock you off a tying hand. Or it’s even possible Villain is throwing a pure bluff at you.

So it’s a very tough decision. It’s terrible (in my humble opinion) for your table image if you fold here to the all-in raise on the river. I don’t know. You’re a good player. Maybe you can somehow turn the image around and use it in your favor. (I could not, or at least doing so would make the game unbearable for me). However, I think you have a loser, and I think it’s greater than three to one that you have a loser.

When I started calculating, I thought maybe you’d have favorable odds to call – but you don’t. You only can beat a bluff. If I was never going to play against any of these guys again, I’d fold here in a New York second and immediately quit the table. But I have the feeling you probably often play against some of these players (because that’s the way it is in my games).

Very tough decision. On the basis of this one hand and pot it’s a clear fold. But that is not all that is involved.

Buzz