[chim17]

[ QUOTE ]
There is a greater than 50% chance that tarheel is not the president

P(drzen is telling the truth)*P(body double)

P(body double) is .5, drzen's claim is believable coming from someone with no pressure, but there is a nonzero probability he is faking to protect books or something.

Furthermore if tarheel is the president the body double will die in his place --> we should lynch him + any village nightkill(s) should target him tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, sure.

But there is nothing we can do but lynch him today.

Kinda irrelevant numbers.