[Buzz]

Hi Phil - It's doubtful that your unknown opponent likes that particular flop very much. However, if you check, you probably won't much information. That is, even if your opponent doesn't like the flop, he might bet simply because he has position. And then if you call, figure you have 13 straight outs.

45-13=32. It's roughly five to two you won't make a straight on the turn.

You also have a back-door flush draw.

13/45 you make your straight on the turn
(7/45)*(19/44) you make a straight or flush on the river,
(25/45)*(13/44) you make a straight on the river.

(13/45)+(7/45)*(19/44)+(25/45)*(13/44)=
0.289+0.067+0.164 = 0.520.

I checked that with a 100000 run sim and got 52146 straights or flushes if played out. (Thus it checks).

Roughly slightly more than half the time, you figure to make a nut straight or nut flush on the turn or river. And you also win some back-door lows. (And there also are some other miscellaneous wins).

How do people in your games usually play when (1) you get heads-up, (2) the flop is a rainbow two high cards and one low card, and (3) you check from first position? Do they usually bet almost regardless of what cards they hold? If so, maybe you can trust your opponent to bet a hand he would fold it you bet yourself. Then you can call or raise.

On the other hand, if you bet and get raised, fine. You are ahead here, although that isn't evident unless you project to the showdown.

Yet at the same time, you're not far ahead enough to slow-play. I don't think you want to give your opponent a free card.

Since you're ahead, despite not actually even having a pair, I don't think you have anything to worry about, except how to maximize your profit on the hand.

How about betting half the pot?

(Keep in mind my experience is mostly in limit games).

Buzz