Re: MORE POLLS
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Yes but I doubt he would cap even AT given stats. The crux of my argument was I can't see this guy not sticking in a raise on flop or turn given two flush draws on the turn and top pair with no face cards out. Plus Joe is a statistical LAG if the guy has any stats.
-DeathDonkey
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Here's my problem with the argument of everybody in the 3b camp:
If you think he always raises top pair on flop or turn, why do you think he would play 99 so differently? If JJ and Jts are virtually the same hand (and I disagree, but whatever), then how is 99 any different? And 77 picked up a gutshot on the turn, so I'd expect him to raise that hand there pretty damn often. So I honestly don't really get it--I'd 3b QQ sometimes too, but that would be against a 50/40 type who might raise/call KQ. Against a normal tag I don't see how this isn't just a cross-your-fingers call. I think you win a fair amount here only cuz I think he has a retarded blluff-raise a fair amount here.
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Well sure, that's true, I'd raise for value with 22 on this flop if I was in there somehow preflop but I doubt the villain in question would. So I guess the question is how does someone with stats like those perceive the value of his hand changing between the turn and river. It is my contention if he has a smaller pair than a ten (A6, 77, whatever) he is going to see the ten as a good card, and what was previously a tenuous situation for him ("I could beat by a ten or an overpair here") has now become somewhat better ("now a ten is not very likely") so he perceives his hand value has increased. Nobody here can say they generally are not happy to see the top card pair when they were worried about their opponent having top pair. It's certainly a welcome sight most times.
-DeathDonkey
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