[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
any discussion of investor psychology must include something about risk aversion

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point.

But what I meant was really more generalized. I'm by no means claiming that anywhere close to "all" libertarians favor indexes (and vice versa for socialists). I'm just saying that in general this is more likely.

Further, it's not as if public policy does not also contain an element of risk aversion. I think the free market is more volatile than a government regulated market. It makes sense that it would be. So still, voter preference contains this aversion, assuming they think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]


Out of curiosity, what kind of returns in terms of compounded percentage do you expect on holding an index fund (I'm assuming it's something that tracks the S&P 500) for a 20 year period or so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Currently large fund managers are assuming 8.5-9% annual returns and 16%-21% standard deviations.