[RobA]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that small PPs are a big part of his range, and now I'm thinking maybe a bet here might be better. We need to be good at least 50% of the time when we're called for a bet to be profitable. Here's a quick stove with hands that he might have that he would probably call a river bet with (or check/raise):

Board: Jd 4d 9s 5h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.583% 61.59% 00.00% 4566006 0.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 38.417% 38.42% 00.00% 2848482 0.00 { 88-22, A2s+, KJs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J7s+, T9s, 96s+, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A2o+, KJo, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J8o+, T9o, 96o+, 65o }

I don't know how realistic that range is, but it appears we have enough equity to bet.

The problem is, sometimes he has a 9 and will c/r the river. He will also sometimes bluff c/r the river. Although most opponents at microstakes will donk as a bluff on the river in this spot. I hate having to make that decision, whether his c/r is a bluff or not, and just check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

kross, i appreciate your analysis and thoughts. thank you for putting in the time on the pokerstove analysis, but i'm not sure how to use it. i think the best way to analyze this spot is to estimate (given all the action in that hand so far, and that the villain has already checked the river)

1.what % of the time an unknown villain will call here with a worse hand?

2.what % of the time an unknown villain will call here with a better hand?

3. what % of a time the unknown villain will CR with a better hand?

4. and what % of a time an unknown villain with CR with a worse hand?

(the times the villain just folds to the river bet are obsolete to the EV on the bet because no money changes hands)

can you give me your best intuitive estimate of 4 percentages, to answer these 4 questions, that add up to 100. (e.g. 40%, 30%, 20%, 10%)

(i have some estimates but am curious of your pure opinion 1st)

think hard [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].