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Old 05-11-2007, 06:10 AM
BlueBear BlueBear is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 1,337
Default Re: Probability tests for pokertracker stats

These statistics alone are not enough to "prove" that they are from the same player. You can't use a "simple" hypothesis testing procedure like a chi-squared test, and that won't indicate anything. A statistician examining the likelihood they are from the same player needs to have to other peoples stats and see how they behave. How much do these stat differ across 100k+ hands tight-nitty players?

There is a second issue with that there may be some correlation in some of the variables. For example, the "flop aggression", "bet flop", "raise flop" and "c/r flop" are connected to each other and a player with a high "flop aggression" will reasonably have high stats in the other 3 categories. An analysis of the likelihood they are the same player must have any correlation effect isolated. How these correlated variables behave in reality can be examined by studying the correlation of other 100k+ hands players.

Extreme care must be taken to conduct any probability tests and it is too easy to use a poorly-designed statistical test that does not consider the matters I outlined above. This is a formidable full-time task and should be undertaken by somebody with a solid postgraduate education in statistics (or having similar experience). I am not defending anybody here, but it is too easy to get carried away and it is easy to "prove" they are from the same player, but such test would lack mathematical rigority.

I'm not a statistician/mathematician but these are just my views.
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