Re: thin
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i guess the point here is that i need a very specific read to make this bet.
wasnt this a pretty clear VB in SSHE? i dont have it with me so i forget the page...anyone have a copy on hand?
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the crux of the decision is whether or not he'll call with Ahigh and what % of the time(busted diamond draw, etc.)?
also, what weaker 5s might be in his range? would he play J5 or something?
this is a question about his payoff tendencies, how he might view you(LOTS of opponents make it a habit to pay me off with Ahigh because of my bluff/semibluff frequency) and what his LP openlimp range consists of.
i don't think anyone can accurately comment on the short term value of this play without having a pretty good handle on these factors. i will say this, a bet like this can be a slight loser immediately but pay dividends(and thus def. be worth it) in the future. people see you valuebetting bottom pair/middle pair and they start paying off more often with hands that beat bottom pair and middle pair. this adds value to your toppair hands and assuming you adjust for the shift in their tendencies you might come out ahead in the grand scheme of things.
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