[Nate.]

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I agree Snowball looks like two pair, but if he's going to fold two pair to a threebet then Joker can exploit the crap out of him.

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what Snowball should do and what he will do are two different things. Snowball, and most other tags like him will call (no offense snowball - this is not a slight on you at all) because they see two pair and hope its good on the river. Exploitability shouldn't be a concern in PJ's eyes because Snowball wouldn't play this way with anything less than 2 pair.

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I understand that exploitability is far from the end of the story, but in a spot like this it's worth thinking about.

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PJ should only be thinking about exploiting Snowballs inability to fold 2-pair or better on this turn, folding out top pair shouldn't even cross his mind because snowball won't play that way with top pair.


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And I don't think Joker can put Snowball so squarely on two pair

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i dont think he can put him squarely on 2 pair either, sets are also within the range. Nothing smaller than 2 pair is in his range however when he c/r the field on the turn.

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simply because Snowball can't put Joker squarely on a pair at all.

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If Joker bets the turn with anything less than a pair, unless its precisely KsQs then he would have lost his mind. Its not happening, PJ knows better than that.

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This could be an opportunistic raise in a substantial pot against someone who probably doesn't have much and someone who might not. Or it could just be for value with a Q that he for some reason decided to check twice.

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its not within snowballs realm of experience to do that. All you have to do is read his countless posts on the strat forums to know that Snowball isn't getting frisky with top pair. Thats one of the great benefits of playing vs 2+2 tags, they are often easy to read and predictable in multi-way pots.


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And, as I elaborated on before, I think this is a spot where Joker should be looking for reasons to 3-bet, not to call

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3-betting here with an overpair is suicide. 3-betting here with a set is brilliant because PJ will get maximum value.

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TT--

OK, if you take as axioms that Snowball doesn't raise the turn with less than one pair and that Joker knows this, the hand gets a lot easier. I'm saying there are good reasons to think that's not the case.

Also, wtf with Snowball's "realm of experience"? This is limit hold'em, not kabuki. The fact that he's posting here means that he's trying to read hands and play well against them. Also he himself said that he would raise some hands worse than two pair here. And again, Joker's 3-bet is not a particularly risky play.

--Nate