[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
How sure are you with making the call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well's that the real question, right? Here's what I'm thinking: he's a TAG who likes to raise CBs 20% of the time. He sees a LP PFR from me (who's 19/9 so far at the table), so he doesn't have to give me credit for a real hand. We both check the Q-hi flop. He might be thinking that if I had a flush draw or a made hand I would have bet it, so I probably have nothing yet. The turn brings the flush but he's not worried about that because I would have already bet my FD on the flop. So how often is he C/Ring my turn with air (or a single spade) thinking that I'll fold it because I don't have a hand either? More than 30% of the time I think. But is his river bet just a second barrel?

Assuming villian is a TAG, what's his line with a Q? He might try a C/R on the flop, but once I check behind on the flop he probably fires the turn to avoid giving me a free card with 3 spades out there already. He might have also just bet out on the flop with a Q. So there are two reasons for me to doubt that he has a Q.

I also don't think many TAGs C/R the turn with the made flush and then bet the paired river because there isn't much value in it. If he does have the flush there aren't too many hands that can flat call his river bet that he beats - so I think a made flush is more likely to check-call the river to entice a bluff.

So then it comes down to whether or not he has something like a 10 or J/J or total air. Does he have air more than 30% of the time? Perhaps I'm giving him way too much credit for multiple level thinking for the average $100NL player, not sure.

ts-