[adanthar]

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The general election only has 3 out of the 4 possibilities (under the current economic and foreign policy conditions)imo: A narrow GOP win, a substantial GOP win, a narrow Dem win. I can't see a basis for expecting a substantial Dem win.

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We're one year removed from a historic Democratic Congressional sweep (pretty much the opposite of '94), the Dem candidates are summarily outraising the GOP candidates for the first time in several decades, the incumbent President is hampering his own party to a substantial degree, and there's a widely unpopular war on. The biggest criticism of Congress is, essentially, that they're not doing enough to reverse the policies the GOP has implemented and cave in to them too often. Finally, twice as many GOP senators are up for re-election as Dems.

If these factors lead you to conclude that the best the Democrats can hope for is a narrow win, I once again invite all comers to wager on it.