Re: NL 100: AKo Squeeze
[ QUOTE ]
Albert, you have blockers for the AA and KK combos which cuts them in half. This has a huge impact on our pot equity which you didn't account for. Our equity is much higher than 30% although someone with pokerstove should be able to confirm this pretty quickly. I'm pretty sure our pot equity is about 35-36%.
[/ QUOTE ]
Oops. Thanks.
This was incorrect, as you point out:
[ QUOTE ]
With 18 (sic) combinations of QQ-AA, if he reraises and then folds with AK(9),JJ(6), and either TT(6) or AQs(4)(sic)then this is +EV.
[/ QUOTE ]
My post should have read,
[ QUOTE ]
With 12 (fixed) combinations of QQ-AA ( QQ(6), KK(3), AA(3) ), if he reraises and then folds with AK(9), JJ(6) and/or AQs(3 (fixed)) then this is +EV.
[/ QUOTE ]
Hero is still relying on a wider range for villain than simply QQ-AA/AK for this to be +EV, I think.
And Berge's point about the shorty on the button possibly being more inclined to call than CO might be true. I assumed, possibly in correctly, that button had something like 88 or AQs with which he shouldn't have called in the first place, and with which he wouldn't call for the rest of his stack either heads up or 3-way for fear that hero had a big pair despite the size of the pot.
As for the pokerstove equity of QQ-AA vs AKo, I thought I'd run it before posting, but I'll have to check later. I didn't run QQ-AA,AK vs AK because I was assuming AK would fold (this might also be an incorrect assumption, however).
All-in-all, this is a marginal move that doesn't rise to the level of spew only because the CO and BTN don't have full stacks. But I like the push better than a call. And I wouldn't object to a fold preflop to the reraise, either.
|