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Old 07-09-2007, 06:32 AM
jlkrusty jlkrusty is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 517
Default Re: NLHE:TAP \"Concepts\" Discussion Post (somewhat long)

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Concept No. 47: It it's clear your opponent has a hand at least worth a call, but he raises instead, it's almost never a bluff.

1. First of all a basic question, he says that post flop the big blind folds - but then youre headsup with the BB for the rest of the hand, is this a typo? and he was meaning to say that youre in the rest of the hand with the PFRasier?

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This is obviously a typo. You are either in the hand with the BB or the preflop raiser. I think he meant to say you are in the hand with the preflop raiser.

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2. What range would you put the person on based on the hand action of this illustrated hand. (guess you have to have the book for this one)

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Up until villain's river check raise, you might put him on AA-66, AK, KQ-K9, 98 (and maybe a few other hands). After his river check raise, you probably put him on AA-KK, TT, 66-77, or KT (all hands that beat yours).

Here's how I interpret this concept:

When people bet a huge amount, they either have a monster or total air. Very rarely do people make huge bets with solid, but moderate hands. Thus, we might guess that people make huge bets as follows:

1- A monster (say around 60-70% of the time)
2- A bluff (say around 30-40% of the time)
3- Some hand in between (say 0-10% of the time--almost never)

So, if you can eliminate most of the chances of your opponent bluffing with air (i.e., because you are certain he has at least a calling hand from how the hand played), then the vast majority of the reason explaining your opponent's huge check raise on the river is that he has a monster hand. Now instead of your opponent having a monster 60-70% of the time, he has a monster 90+% of the time. You don't have the odds to call, so you fold.
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