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Old 08-14-2007, 12:57 PM
Stumpy Stumpy is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Mathmagicland
Posts: 483
Default Re: QQ Facing 3 shoves. Can this be a fold?

Ari can shove a decent range here, because he's almost always going to get heads up against the button with a big (2:1) overlay.

I think his range could be wider than Swede has, but the BB range is really the key.

You're 34% in the side pot using Swede's numbers, and 33.3% is break-even, so basically you're even there.
The main pot is 20,600, you're putting in 3k more. So you're +2768 there using Swede's ranges.

I don't know what the payouts are for this tournament, but you're 4 from the money and probably 1.5 on average are going out here if you fold. So I think the $ of the bubble, plus the fact that the bubble should be tightening at least BB and button's ranges, makes this a fold.

If you can add JJ to BB's range, it's an easy call.
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