Re: Clearplay bonuses strategy
The house edge between player in banker is negligible for the purposes of a single big bet. The banker bet has a slight edge in general circumstances. However, I believe that with a Clearplay bonus of >20%, the player bet has a greater expected gain.
If you continue rebetting, until you either win or lose the big bet. There is a 50.7% chance banker will win, and a 49.3% chance player will win. This makes the odds under general circumstances .507*0.95 -.493= -1.2% for the banker bet, and .493-.507= -1.4% for the player bet. So banker is the better choice without a bonus.
If you figure in a 400% clearplay bonus of $200, then the banker bet EV is .507*0.95*$250 -.493*$50 = $95.70. And the player bet EV is .493*$250 -.507*$50 = $97.95.
Note that you can play many games besides baccarat and you can choose many bet sizes besides full-bankroll. Just make high variance bets until you either reach your target gain or bust. The higher the variance, the higher the EV and higher the risk of loss. The more you wager, the more the house edge has an influence.
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