Thread: 77 Blind Battle
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Old 09-03-2007, 09:21 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: New Orleans
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Default Re: 77 Blind Battle

This is another example of the concept that OOP sometimes it's best to bet even though you expect to be a money loser when you do bet.

For simplicity, let's assume our villain will call with any pair and maybe even some A highs if we bet. I think this is reasonable. If we check to him, what will he bet? All hands queens and better as well some of his weaker hands. They could include bluffs like 7c 4s or value bets with Ah 6c or Jh 6h.

It's very reasonable to assume he will bet enough worse hands that you should call getting 6-to-1. But what hands has bet? All the ones that beat you but only some of his worse hands that he would have called with. (Here we assume he will bluff relatively infrequently -- if he bluffs a lot, then you *should* check/call this river.) So you do worse than if you had just bet out, even if you only win the pot, say, 35-40% of the time you are called.
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