Re: PART II. RIVER ACTION?
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A lot of people panic on this flop with AA or KK and just shove if they're villain, even with a diamond (esp with KdKx which is more likely since you have an Ace) so I don't put much weight on that part of his range. This looks a lot like JJ-TT with a diamond, AJ-AK with a diamond, or the made flush. Sometimes he has QQ+, but not super often IMO.
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i agree w/ most of this but i think Aface w/ diam shoves this flop in this spot almost always.
the Q is how often im being trapped and how often does a worse hand that called flop, 88-JJ i guess, call a river push? mb betting 500 to force a crying call is best?
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I wouldn't count on him bluffing his missed AK all the time, and I wouldn't love to call his shove if I check. You can rep AK here very well, so I'd shove river and hope for a call from JJ. I expect him to fold but I can't think of a better line. (I shove turn first though because I think I'm good and the pot is big).
[/ QUOTE ]ok, good post.
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Also, why is this in MSNL?
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only 2K stax, y not...
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