[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't the solid guy raise with split Kings? Wouldn't he call with (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? I don't see why he "has" to have Kings here. Maybe when he bets K9o on fourth you give him credit for Kings, but not for calling on third.



[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't know what we have, he thinks we've got a low. Him 2betting 3rd doesn't seem to do anything useful. The girl should fold 3rd no matter what, and the BI is probably calling 2 bets just as easily as 1 if he's got a good hand and he's a reasonable player, and with just KK I'd think he'd prefer getting to 4th cheaply as he will then be able to play his hand easier. Depending on how the K perceives DD he may want to keep the pot small so that DD will make an incorrect peel on 4th if he sees him as some fishy young Holdem kid. If they've played together before and he knows DD is good at these games then I think he should still call because he will know DD has a fairly solid hand here and he should see no reason to build a large pot early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

great analysis. Question is do we really want to get HU with P2? P2's range is hard to determine.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about this hand and I'm beginning to think you're right. This might be one of those rare times where I want to fold what has a pretty good chance of being the best hand. P2 has accidentally stumbled into a situation where her hand is extremely difficult to read and could result in a catastrophic fold on 6th or a spew by us on 6th/7th when we might already have only 4 outs. When I first read the hand I thought "we've probably got the best hand, we raise" but I think I'm coming around and realizing that it may be better to relinquish the pot while it's only decent sized instead of making it huge and almost forcing us to show down. I'm not completely sold that we should fold yet but I'm leaning that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has been a very educational hand for me, it was the toughest hand I've seen all month.

1) Normally I would assume calling is worse than raising, but in this specific hand I only think raising is good if (xx)K can find a fold at least 50% of the time. So in essence I think both calling and raising are of equal value. The real question then becomes if the hero should fold or not.

2) Some people have questioned if we should fold since there isnt enough evidence that either opponent have two pair. So I ran a sim for stud high only to see where we stand and I was surprised that if we are up against KK and AA that our hand is not as strong as expected. Since there are too many possible draws/redraw including the possibility of a split pot I have to finally join the fold camp. I tend to forget that overcards are a slight favorite on 5th street vs 2 underpair, this has been a great lesson that I will try to avoid in the future.

3) This brings us back to point one. Raising to attempt to go heads up vs possible slowplayed AA seems pointless if she is showdown bound, as a slight favorite she is unlikely to fold (and from description she sounds like a retard who always calls when she doesn't know where she stands).

Thanks for sharing this hand DD!