Thread: huhuhu
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Old 11-23-2007, 11:02 AM
MrHoobris MrHoobris is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 170
Default Re: huhuhu

The math:

Current pot size: 50+150=200
Pot Size if Called: 600*2=1200
Left to shove: 600-50=550

Equity when called:

Hand 0: 69.143% { JJ+, TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 30.857% { AJs }
Not sure how he'll react with TT or AQo given your history. But you'll always have around 30% equity, as you would with any suited ace.

Let X=P(Fold), breakeven point of shove:
EV(0) = 200X + (1-X)(1200*0.308 - 550)
X = 47.4%

Therefore, he must fold almost half the time for this shove to be profitable. His calling range represents 3.5% of combos, so he needs to be doing this with:
3.5%/(1-47.4%) = 6.66% of total combos.

I like a shove given your history, as I'd say he could be getting to the point of doing this with a far great portion of his range. There's also an outside chance that he'll be tilted into calling with a wider range against you are flipping or better. If he's calling with 88-99 This makes the fact you have AJs instead of A7s very important.
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