Re: accuracy of PECOTA team wins
[ QUOTE ]
does anyone know of any studies which track how accurate projected team wins (per PECOTA) are? I saw back in 2004 Nate did a study on individual PECOTA projections vs. other projection systems, but I haven't been able to find anything like this on team wins.
I'm looking at these in contrast w/ Vegas lines, and there are some big differences. for instance...
The over/under on Tampa Bay is 67, over -115. Thats 11 games less than the projected PECOTA wins.
The over/under on Toronto is 86.5, while PECOTA projects 80, and the under is +105.
[/ QUOTE ]
I haven't read through all the way through BP 2007 yet - is it simply a kind of summation of PECOTA projections for particular players? Seems like the division might have something to do with it in the case of Tampa, though one would also think that Toronto would have a similar lowered expectation.
|