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Old 07-04-2007, 03:47 PM
CarlosChadha CarlosChadha is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 697
Default Re: 1/2 Stud High: 4AA 5th Street Decision

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Most players dont bet a small two pair on the river often enough when checked to. Against this player it is right to bet sixth (unless he catches a three flush or open pair), IMO, then check seventh unless you improve.

In general, on sixth, it is better to bet if you know you will call and dont fear a raise.

On seventh, I am inclined to bet 2 pair or better and call a raise (unless i know the player or have a read) .

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Yes, in GENERAL it is correct to bet instead of check calling if a raise is unlikely. However, as the preceding discussion has shown, this is CLEARLY not a general situation.

Lets see how we do with your line vs various hands (assuming he checks two pair UI on the river) and how my line does:

-Opponent misses flush draw and hero is UI: both lines loss 1 bet
-he makes a flush on river and hero is UI: your line -2BBs, my line -1BB
-hero improves on river, he makes flush: your line -3BBs, my line -1BB
-hero improves on river, he rags river: your line +1BB, my line +0 BB
-he has 2 pair, neither improve: both lines lose 1B, if op bets river, your line loses 2Bs
-he has 2p, hero improves: both lines +2Bs
-he has 2 p and fills:both lines lose 3Bs

Throw in the fact that our kickers are dead, making it less likely for us to improve, and it is very clear that check calling 6th and then playing the river I a suggest is best.

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OK, first we have only one side card gone (the six). Fours and tens are live. He has three flush cards that are gone.
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he makes a flush on river and hero is UI: your line -2BBs, my line -1BB

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This analysis makes no sense to me. Do you check down AA from fourth if the guy has a flush draw? After all you will save bets when he makes his draw.

So, I charge him to draw out and take the chance that he has two pairs (in which case, I will draw out on him). Note that on fifth I have 9 cards that make me 2 pair or better, and on sixth I have 12 cards (if i catch live) to make 2 pair or better. He has 6 clubs he can catch and a Jack (giving him JJ with a flush draw, his most likely hand) to beat our aces up.

I like betting.

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You are correct about both the hero and the villain's cards being slightly dead. I think your line would more closer to being correct (but still sub optimal) if the hero's card were totally live.

You have to call a bet on the river with unimproved Aces if you bet 6th to defend against a desperation bluff whereas by checking 6th you know where you are at on the river, so you DON'T have to defend against a bluff

Keep in mind that his MOST likely hand is two pair, NOT the flush draw. I agree that your line is slightly stronger than my line vs the flush draw. But my line is much strong than yours against the most likely hand of 2 pair. Online players will frequently make aggressive value bets on the river with 2 pair, whereas live, they hardly ever do. You line would be okay live against certain players
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