Re: Q9s two pairs
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Good 30 game. Two limpers, I limps Q9s on the button, blinds do their thing.
SB is a decent asian dude that I don't know much about other than that he knows how to play aggressively on the early streets, but gets more passive on the later streets. Definitely hand reads more than anyone else at the table. The relevant limper in this hand is completely horrible and will call along with all sorts of crap.
Flop is 982r. SB bets, both limpers call, I raise, SB 3bets, only one limper calls, I call.
Turn is Q putting up a flush draw. (7.5 bets) SB bets, limper calls, I raise, SB 3bets without hesitation, limper folds, I call hoping to spike a queen.
River is a 4. (14.5 bets) SB bets, can I fold here?
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No, you really cannot fold.
If this is a 2/3 structure, then he should be able to have a bunch of 2 pairs.
Also, if he is a good hand reader, he should know that you probably didn't make a straight on the turn (b/c you should be capping JT on the flop) so he shouldn't be afraid to be 3 betting you on 4th with any of his 2 pairs.
If this is a 1/2 structure, then folding might be right, but I'm not sure. I think the fact that he is a good hand reader makes this a calldown in general though.
98 (6 combos)
vs,
88, 99, 22 (7 combos)
JT (16 combos)
So you are a 23:6 dog
If you discount 98 by 66% then you still have odds to call
If you add in 82s and 92s into the possible hands he might play like this then the call is easier (even though these hands are extremely unlikely and almost not worth mentioning)
So yeah, call and expect to get shown a set or JT
"payoff with confidence"
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