cross posted from
my live journal page
week 6 recap
pretty bad. My road Fave picks went 0-8. I received some feedback on that. I looked through my picks and I still feel pretty good about them. I was 13-12 on road faves game ATS coming into the week for this season. I was 10-4 on road fave second half picks this year. I'm relatively sure I was picking out the good subset of a bad overall group before this week. I went back over all my models/analysis/etc for this week's picks and they all look fine. Of course, that means there is a bigger issue. The assumptions under my models and analysis have some serious flaws somewhere. ARGH!!!!!!!!!!! I keep going over things to see what needs improvement. I'll post some of the breakdowns in the next few days. More bizarre is the 0-6 on O/U picks. O/Us have always been my softballs and I was doing well on them this year until this week despite the crazy underscoring on week 1 when I tried to take advantage of the new rules (those that follow the points will see I was pretty close to right on the scoring increase, but that week 1 was considerably off the pace). The scariest thing about this week is that there were not many *bad* beats, ie close games where the breaks went against me. One thing that went well is I picked 4 underdog moneylines and all 4 won the games straight-up.
in summary: I'm perplexed. I welcome the comments I've gotten. I'm looking into everything. No one likes breaking even (doing worse without bonuses and whatnot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]). It's not disasterous, but it isn't good.
BTW--Florida/LSU ML picks will not count toward the subset records. I pretty much just played the line movement correctly and got a 0.12u freeroll on Florida winning.
*********WEEK 6*************
Week 6 summary
bet 57.21 units
down 7.76 units
13-22-1 sides/totals/even props
12-15-1 Game ATS
0-6 Game O/U
1-1 Even Props
1-0 Favored Props (W -170)
1-0 Favored ML (W-315)
4-0 Dog ML (W+148, W+150, W+152, W+200)
POTW:Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u -LOSS 23-20 ASU
ASU -315 ML @ Wazzu bet 1.58u to win 0.5u +WIN 23-20 ASU
Cincinnati ML +150 @ Rutgers bet 2u to win 3u +WIN 28-23 Cincy
Cincinnati +3.5 @ Rutgers bet 1.04u to win 1u +WIN 28-23 Cincy
LSU -7 v Florida bet 2.53u to win 2.5u -LOSS 28-24 LSU
LSU -290 ML bet 0.87u to win 0.3u +WIN 28-24 LSU
Florida +330 ML @ LSU bet 0.3u to win 0.99u -LOSS 28-24 LSU
Oregon St -3 v Arizona bet 2.68u to win 2.5u +WIN 31-16 Oregon St
Virginia -10 @ MTSU bet 2.63u to win 2.5u -LOSS 23-21 Virginia
Auburn -7.5 v Vandy bet 2.1u to win 2u +WIN 35-7 Auburn
Ohio -4 @ Buffalo bet 2u to win 2u -LOSS 31-10 Buffalo
Texas +12.5 N Oklahoma bet 2u to win 2u +WIN 28-21 Oklahoma
Troy -18.5 @ FIU bet 2.1u to win 2u -LOSS 34-16 Troy
NMST +25.5 @ Boise St bet 2.2u to win 2u -LOSS
V Tech +5.5 @ Clemson bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN 41-23 V Tech
V Tech +200 ML @ Clemson bet 1u to win 2u +WIN 41-23 V Tech
NIU -3.5 @ Temple bet 1.06u to win 1u -LOSS 16-15 Temple
Illinois -3 v Wisconsin bet 1u to win 1.2u +WIN 31-26 Illinois
Miami Fl -7 @ UNC bet 1.01u to win 1u -LOSS 33-27 UNC
Wake -7.5 @ Duke bet 1.01u to win 1u -LOSS 41-36 Wake
C Mich +13 @ Ball St bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN 58-38 C Mich
Wyoming -3 v TCU bet 1.05u to win 1u +-PUSH 24-21 Wyoming
Miami OH +9 @ Kent bet 1u to win 1.02u +WIN 20-13 Miami OH
La Tech +13 @ Ole Miss bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 24-0 Ole Miss
Alabama -11 v Houston bet 1.02u to win 1u -LOSS 30-24 Bama
Maryland +3.5 v G Tech bet 0.53u to win 0.5u +WIN 28-26 Maryland
Maryland +148 ML v G Tech bet 0.5u to win 0.74u +WIN 28-26 Maryland
ECU +3.5 v UCF bet 0.54u to win 0.5u +WIN 52-38 ECU
ECU +152 ML v UCF bet 0.5u to win 0.76u +WIN 52-38 ECU
Purdue +7 v Ohio St bet 1u to win 1u -LOSS 23-7 Ohio St
Air Force -5 v UNLV bet 1u to win 1u +WIN 31-14 Air Force
Ark St -2.5 @ UL-Monroe bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 30-13 ULM
S Miss -20 v Rice bet 1.04u to win 1u -LOSS 31-29 Rice
Kentucky +5 @ S Carolina bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 38-23 S Car
Utah +15.5 @ L'Ville bet 1.09u to win 1u +WIN 44-35 Utah
Darrell Mack o19.5 rush attempts for Utah @ L'Ville bet 1.15u to win 1u +WIN
Longest TD o52.5 yards for Utah/L'ville bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS
Mizzou to score first v Nebraska bet 1.7u to win 1u +WIN
N'Western/MSU u53.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 89 points
Kansas/K St o54.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 54 points
V Tech/Clemson u41 bet 1.03u to win 1u -LOSS 64 points
Georgia/Tennessee o56.5 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 49 points
Arizona/Oregon St o54 bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS 47 points
Notre Dame/UCLA o47.5 bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS 26 points