[whynot?]

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With regard to your other question, the fact that this is a satellite means you should be more aggressive. The payout is very top heavy. So don't be afraid of coin flip situations. You need to have a big stack as you get close to the bubble.

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with all due respect, this is 180 degrees from what i believe to be right given where villain is

if youre short, sure, but in hero's current position i just dont think it makes sense.

you dont need a big stack, your target should be about 80% of average at bubble time - dont need more, could do with less

gambling by taking a flip against the only stack that can eliminate you with a questionable hand just doesnt make sense. as i get closer to a bubble, i always try to do some quick math that balances

the chance of winning a seat in current pos vs the chance of winning a seat if win the current hand times the chances of winning hte current hand

nothing formal but a quick check point - so in this case lets say you have a 30% chance of winning a seat in your current position. if your chances increase to 50% by winning, then your gut feel would be you need a 60% chance of winning if you make the call - clearly you dont have that - obv this works better before entering a pot but the logic holds along the way still - in this case if you risk the 9k is it a good gamble - think the above math is directionally correct with regard to that decision


theres probably some fallacy in the above but i think its a bit of a guiding principle as you get closer to the bubble. i really believe its incredibly important to have a plan in a sat (as always) and stick to it -