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Old 11-04-2007, 11:13 AM
Albert Moulton Albert Moulton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Live Full Ring NLHE
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Default Re: top top w/ AQ in 3bet pot vs a fish and a tag (ugly spot)

You have 2.1:1 pot odds in a reraised pot. You need at least 32% equity to make a call marginally +EV.

"His fold to cbet is 67% and raise 10%" indicates that he probably doesn't have air or a weak draw when he raises your continuation bet. Hands that might be in his range that "hit" this flop might include QQ+,99-88,AcKc,AQs,AcJc,AcTc,KQs,QJs.

Vs that range, AdQd has 29.1% equity. So, unless you can widen his range for making this move, then a fold is marginally better than a call.

However, you can't make a habit of folding top pair in a reraised pot because if he ever "bluffs" with a hand like TT-JJ here, hoping that you either have a missed AK or will fold a 1-pair hand, then you are giving up way too much by folding. Vs a villain willing to push a little light sometimes, you have to call, but you give no indication in the OP that you suspect this villain to play like that.
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