Lottery with free tickets to another lottery. Calculate EV?
Scenario 1:
Lottery A:
Chances of winning are 1:550k
Price: $1/ticket
Current prize $400k
Promo- But 5 Lottery A tix, get 1 free lottery B tix
Lottery B:
Chances of winning are 1:150k
Price: $1/ticket
Current prize: $150k
Scenario 2:
Lottery A:
Chances of winning are 1:550k
Price: $1/ticket
Current prize $550k
Promo- But 5 Lottery A tix, get 1 free lottery B tix
Lottery B:
Chances of winning are 1:150k
Price: $1/ticket
Current prize: $300k
In both scenarios, I think Lottery B is more +EV, but i cant do the math to prove it.
Am i right? If so, how do you do the math to figure it out?
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