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Old 08-21-2006, 02:59 PM
crockpot crockpot is offline
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Default Re: Cards/Cubs today (Saturday)

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The problem with LaRussa is he doesn't understand this little thing called sample size. He frequently puts enourmous stock in completely statistically insignificant numbers such as Duncan's batting average against lefties. Duncan has 27 at-bats against left handed pitchers, yet he's very quick to pull him in favor of a guy that strikes out all the time.

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http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi...emPCL&bp=b

duncan has a .552 OPS against lefties this year. in AAA. given that his overall numbers this year are a substantial upgrade over previous years, i find it hard to believe this is an aberration.

projecting his numbers to a full season of 700 PA, we find that in a situation where you really need a walk or at least for him to hit a fly ball, he is on pace for 28 walks and 252 strikeouts, and his groundball/flyball ratio is over 5:1. against AAA pitching.

as for him being the hottest hitter in the league, it's been proven over and over this doesn't make a difference. it's fine if you want to believe in things that have no factual basis, but don't try to prove anything using that as an excuse.

la russa (surprisingly) made the right move this time, and it didn't pay off. it happens.
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