[RipperTEQ]

[ QUOTE ]
dbitel theorem sir (nobody fold overpairs). You can always call and rep a paint/club turn?

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This is interesting. I'm not sure if this math adds up, but I've given it a shot.

If we assume on average of the 18 cards dealt, that over time they even out 25% for each suit, we can assume 4.5 cards of each suit that end up 'dead'. In other words, if we played 1 million hands, the average results would mean even number of suited cards dealt as starting hands.

So if we correctly assume together 9 collective diamond/club cards either dead or in play on board or in hero's hand, that leaves 26-9 = 17 diamond/club cards remaining. Add the 4 remaining non club A/K outs and there are (again on average) 21 cards that come on the turn that help us IF we can properly rep a club draw. If we turn a diamond, we've given ourselves extra outs with the nut flush. So 21 out of 47 cards = .447, close to half the cards in the deck now helping us. This is 2.2 to 1 odds and the pot is laying at 2.4 to 1 odds. We'd have to be fairly certain the villain would give respect to the draw, so I think it would work best against a tight/passive player than anything else. Seems like a good line if you've seen the villain get drawn out on recently.