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Old 02-23-2006, 08:00 AM
Python49 Python49 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Borgata baby
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Default Can someone help explain variance to a friend of mine?

I was just talking to him on AIM and he feels that a 3k hand losing stretch of losing 6 buyins is absolutely ridiculous, near impossible. I told him that it can happen to anybody and is not even that bad relative to variance some people go through over 10s of thousands of hands. He claims that this stuff should not be happening and that he does not believe it happens to every player at some point. I was trying to explain to him that 25bb/100 is not sustainable due to the fact that bad beats happen and that bad beats are normal.. and that without them everybody would be killing the games. He seems to feel that the beats he takes are just unreal and other people don't put up with it.

He told me about one hand where he flopped a set and lost to runners against someone who had TPSK and caught a boat. He says he told a buddy of his who plays poker about the hand and that the guy told him "wow i dunno, never seen something like that happen". Also may be interesting to mention that after 15k hands with the bad 3k hand stretch included, his bb/100 is at 8.
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