Re: $100 NL QQ r/r PF
Assumptions:
- Given the huge gap between villains VPIP and PFR, he flat calls a ton and doesn't 3ball a ton, so his 3betting range is somewhat narrow.
- Villain will shut down on turn with AK (no spades) unimproved and not bluff us off the best hand
- Villain may fold two red tens to a push here, but will probably put more money in on the turn if it bricks (this one is shakey)
- If villain holds AsXx he will still get all in on a blank turn, where our equity is much higher. Same thing for TsTx,JsJx, etc. (the main thing here)
Also, if we're raising flop to charge a hand like AsKh, we're not really 'charging' it anything since we're a slight dog on the flop. It is actually charging us, since on it's ahead and a lot of turns could skyrocket our equity.
Anywho if those assumptions are true, I still like flat call flop > push safe turn. If they are wrong, I guess I'd just push flop. If the flop was only 2flush or I had QsQx, like I said flop push would be super standard.
Someone please tell me *why* I'm wrong, because I really do want to know why my thinking is messed.
|