[apefish]

FSU- yes- it is largely a wrong assumption that somehow Ivey makes many more birdies because of the bet conditions.
He saves his strokes off the tee, on penalties, on 3 putts and once in a while on a birdie putt. His advantage overall is in negotiating the course- not in birdie making.
While his average distance to a pin comes down due to the extra attempts and his average distance from the pin for putts will come down- nothing suggests that he somehow now is sticking 120 yard shots say 10-15 feet and in where his extra putts may matter.

Also- I think anyone putting money down on either side without really understanding the details of the bet and or knowing the actual indexes of the two players and the ratings they will be playing at is asking for trouble.
But if it is only a two shot thing for Ivey and he is north of a 15 there are few circumstances under which pavin wouldnt be a favorite and solidly so.
That said- my guess is that Ivey is the one who has made more bets like this in his life and has to have some idea of how he thinks he would perform in it.
Unless of course he doesnt care and it is advertising that sets up future plays.