Re: AQs vs. a dealer and a new guy.
this is a very very tough spot, esp bc you hold AQ
AJ I would dump, AK I would cap, AQ is difficult
I agree that a solid tag shouldn't 3-bet a set in the SB here, but that doesn't mean he can't have one
SB could also have some kind of combo draw, A9s (A4s seems unlikely) for 2 pair, AK (lots of people would NOT 3-bet AK from the SB) and AQ
UTG+1's range I'm not sure about, I just entered a couple of hands that might seem reasonable, OP could probably do a better job there, but we should be more concerned about SB's range anyway and it gives us something to work with
Board: Ad 9h 4d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.782% 15.83% 08.95% 194830 110178.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 58.991% 50.79% 08.20% 625093 100957.00 { 99, 44, A9s+, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 16.228% 15.06% 01.17% 185345 14386.00 { 77-22, AQs-A9s, J9s, T9s, AQo-AJo }
given that we still have ~25% equity I couldn't fold this and would opt for a cap to try and knock out UTG+1, which would increase our equity to ~32% and also would make decisions a little more easy on later streets
Board: Ad 9h 4d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.226% 21.32% 10.91% 5909 3024.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 67.774% 56.87% 10.91% 15763 3024.00 { 99, 44, A9s+, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, AQo+ }
by capping, we would invest 3 small bets into a pot of 15 small bets, assuming UTG+1 will fold and SB will call, thus getting 5:1 odds as a 2:1 dog IP, which is good enough for me
fwiw: if a diamond hits the turn and SB leads out, I'm done with the hand
also, what does NYIH mean?
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