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Old 11-26-2007, 03:19 PM
hitch1978 hitch1978 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 466
Default Re: Math question about pot odds in poker....

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No. You're not figuring this correctly....

If the pot is $60 AFTER your opponent bets $10, then yes... Your immediate pot odds are 6 to 1. However, if the pot is $60 and now he bets $10, your pot odds are 7 to 1.

If your opponent bets $30 on the turn, your pot odds will either be 3.3 to 1, or 3.7 to 1 (either way, you're getting better than 2.3 or 2 to 1).

But you also have to take into account other variables.

While you might not be getting the exact right "price" to call a turn bet, this isn't your only consideration. You need to factor in how much you can win if you were to hit your flush on the river. If your opponent is a bad player who is deep stacked and will pay off a rather large bet, you don't need correct odds on the turn. Your implied odds will do.

Lastly, you need to take into account that an ace might be good, or even that A7 might be the best hand if your opponent is bluffing with a flush draw of his own.

A final consideration is any fold equity a bet by you might have. When you add all this up, you will usually find that the right play is to play your hand strongly on the flop. Check-call, or call-call, is not the way I'd normally play this hand. Of course, much depends on the pre-flop action and how your opponent plays.

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Only one thing to add to this, if you raise on the flop, what are the chances it will be checked to you on the turn? If you're opponent is likely to check to you on the turn if you raise to, say, $30, then that's 2 more cards for $30, not the $10 + $? turn bet by your opponent.

Raising here also gives you a greater chance of being paid off should you hit, but that's really OT.

You really should get 'Theory of Poker' by David Sklansky. The work is both thourough and correct, and will answer every question of this manner you could need it to. There are depths to the math side that it looks like you are about to hit upon, Implied odds will be your next step, and an understanding of them is really critical to make these type of decisions correctly.

Good luck.
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