[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Injuries are a real problem for outsiders, because they've never figured out a way to effectively include them in the system. Like any statistic, it should be used as a general guide, not a steadfast rule. But if it says the Eagles are 18% to make the playoffs, then it's apparent that saying 50% is being way too optimistic.

And I'm not buying the momentum thing at all. I think momentum is the same type of thing as clutch: something that's often talked about as important but doesn't actually exist.