View Single Post
  #25  
Old 09-04-2007, 07:10 PM
TNixon TNixon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: Heads Up Game Theory exercise

The simulator is not calculating EV.

The simulator is telling you how much you win or lose over a session of a million hands. The total profit or loss has to include the posted blinds.

Not taking the posted blind into account gives you a calculation that is +EV, but where you will actually lose money over time.

Which means the calculation is misleading at best, and flat out incorrect at worst.

*Edit*

The whole point of trying to figure out the EV of betting 100% against an opponent who will call with any number 34 or higher is to figure out if that is a profitable play, is it not?

Simulating 1 million hands shows pretty clearly that you will lose money in that situation, to the tune of 1/3BB per hand.

Therefore, any sort of math that tells you it is profitable to bet 100% *has* to be wrong, does it not?
Reply With Quote