View Single Post
  #7  
Old 11-17-2007, 03:05 PM
Sanderrp Sanderrp is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 23
Default Re: Semi-Bluff with no FE?

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I kinda like a shove here, even it being way bigger than pot - you'll get looked up by random crap like T9 more than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't we want random crap like T9 to fold here? The old letting villain make a mistake instead of getting it in when marginally in front. Let's do the math, wheeee:

Board: 9s 6d 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.123% 48.12% 00.00% 5717 0.00 { T9s, T9o }
Hand 1: 51.877% 51.88% 00.00% 6163 0.00 { AsQs }

Pot is $25.50 after villain's minraise, we have $93.15 in our stack:

EV of shoving and getting called, by T9:
(.52*($25.50 (pot) + $87.15[villain's call])) + (.48*(-$93.15)) = $58.58 -$44.71 = $13.87

EV of shoving and villain folding:
$25.50 (pot)

I don't see a shove here because I think a normal raise (44 sounds about right) has more FE. If you feel you have no FE vs this specific villain then a call is best.

On turn I check behind. Most 50/8s don't like folding turn after calling a 3-bet on the flop in my experience.
Reply With Quote