Re: Semi-Bluff with no FE?
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Yeah, I kinda like a shove here, even it being way bigger than pot - you'll get looked up by random crap like T9 more than you think.
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Don't we want random crap like T9 to fold here? The old letting villain make a mistake instead of getting it in when marginally in front. Let's do the math, wheeee:
Board: 9s 6d 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.123% 48.12% 00.00% 5717 0.00 { T9s, T9o }
Hand 1: 51.877% 51.88% 00.00% 6163 0.00 { AsQs }
Pot is $25.50 after villain's minraise, we have $93.15 in our stack:
EV of shoving and getting called, by T9:
(.52*($25.50 (pot) + $87.15[villain's call])) + (.48*(-$93.15)) = $58.58 -$44.71 = $13.87
EV of shoving and villain folding:
$25.50 (pot)
I don't see a shove here because I think a normal raise (44 sounds about right) has more FE. If you feel you have no FE vs this specific villain then a call is best.
On turn I check behind. Most 50/8s don't like folding turn after calling a 3-bet on the flop in my experience.
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