Re: The Ass end of a straight draw
Out of curiosity, why is a PFR so bad here?
Pokerstoved, giving SB a random range (it's prob. pretty close to that) and MP1 a fairly wide range (say 22-99, A2s-ATs, A2o-AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, K9s-KQs, QTs-QJs, JTs, T9s), we've got a very slight equity advantage. While we're OOP, taking control of the hand helps that out a lot. Neither SB or MP has showed much strength and we're very likely buying this pot on the flop.
Even if it's not +EV, there's really no reason for y'all to be blowing this out of proportion like some huge error. Raising in this spot can't cost more than fractions of a penny in the long run.
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