[knicknut]

I don't quite understand what you mean... are you saying the difference in standard deviations can't be that big?

My question is then how do you account for why sportsbooks make different moneylines for different spreads? Why not just link them one to one? There must be something they're taking into account (that you're not).

Also, have you backtested the strategy with out of sample trials to refute it? OK, X point favorites won Y percent of the time, but do X point favorites with moneylines above the breakeven (that you are willing to bet) still win at least Y percent of the time?

If this is just your gut feeling and you're having fun with it, fine. I still don't think this is +EV as a rote strategy, though, as you're just betting against adjustments the books make (modifying the ML for games of the same spread). You're pretty much making a punt that they're doing it in the wrong direction.

Good luck.