Re: Wong Teasers, Week 12
no this is result oriented thinking, the price you pay up front for the teaser is the up-front premium/sunk cost you can never get back. sure if by kickoff the line is +3.5 and you teased them at +3 you took a bad deal at the snapshot in time. however, this is true if you teased the team +1.5 and they finished at +3.5, so this has NOTHING to do w/ teasing a team at +3. +3 -130 has the same value as +2.5 -110, line movement is not an excuse for not teasing +3 -130
this kind of thinking is result oriented as you need to know the end result (+3.5) to figure out that you were wrong when speculating earlier. the theoretical loss from that is more than balanced out by the gain of taking a -7.5 team when they closed -9.5. this is akin to saying that detroit +3.5 -110 is a bad bet b/c g.b beat them by 11, sure if we can see the end result we would never make a mistake for the rest of our lives.
also, this where line-movement prediction becomes vital for a capper. anyone who has experience could've seen that wash+3 and caro+3 were moving in opposite directions.
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