Re: turn c/r semi (600NL).
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The great thing about semibluffing the flop is that our equity, when called, usually isn't that bad anyway. Now we're semibluffing a gutshot on the turn, where we have very little equity if called. It's hard to make up that difference in equity between drawing to two cards and drawing to one card, which is why I feel semibluffing the turn is almost always bad.
This particular move is essentially a stone cold bluff that, once in a blue moon, will get bailed out by making broadway. It barely even qualifies as a semi-bluff. Is making this move with ATC profitable? Of course not. We're risking a lot of money in a small pot on a coordinated board against multiple villians.
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hmmmm, i think you missed the significance of the 8 on the turn. it gave me a double gutshot, any 9 or K gives me the straight (and a A gives me top pair, for what thats worth).
what you say about semi bluffing the flop only holds if you are semi bluffing all-in and thus get to see 2 cards for your raise. it possibly also holds when you are in position and can check behind on the turn for a free card. obviously the move works very well in these situations, but that is not to say it is incorrect at other times.
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