Re: Pitching Probabilities
The effects of short rest likely manifest themselves outside of a specific season. Given that prior to the current era short rest was standard, you have very solid data to do a comparative analysis between now and then.
Long rest is also a bit overestimated b.c. if an extra day was that significant in-season, it would be implemented by at least some teams(who happen to have a worthy sixth starter) combined with off days to create a uniform extra-rest schedule.
So IMO rest is factor in longevity much more than it is in next-start success, where it may actually be so small as to be neglible. The problem is that the longevity detriment is obiovusly cummulative, and the playoffs are not played in April.
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