Re: PF Raising Logic
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You'd be surprised. You'll find guys who called pre flop with AQ, AJ, KQ, guys with QQ who convince themselves you must have JJ, and guys who flop some kind of draw and can't let it go.
And NO, if you 3 bet large enough they won't have enough implied odds to draw to a set. If they commit 1/8th of their stack pre flop, they're already losing money, even if they get paid off every time they flop a set. Once you factor in that that they must flop a set AND I must flop a pair, it's not even close. You cannot set mine profitably in this spot. If its a standard 4BB raise pre flop and you call, totally different. They can set mine profitably.
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I agree with this post, against bad players as i mentioned, players who will be getting stacked with underpaired queens, or calling with worse kings or shoving fds with no fold equity etc. As for set mining, this is the typical situation: hero raises to 3.5bb (pot)with 88 in BTN, BB 3 bets to 12 - so, u r calling 8.5bb into 17. Now, if we assume he auto c-bets (very likely) - thats now calling 8.5 into about 37.5 (he c-bets 20 into 25.5 minus ur initial 8.5), now if consider the fact that ur ahead on the flop a certain amount even if dont flop a set and the fact that u can stack his overpair or tptk if he has it when u flop a set: then i think its def worth it. I do obviously think that playing them in position makes it much much easier. As an added bonus, by calling more pf in these "marginal" situations, u deter light 3 betting against u and make it more difficult for opponents to narrow ur range once uve called a 3-bet
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The problem with this is, you're assuming the player with 88 knows the other guy has AK. If he's pushing with 88 in this spot, he's getting crushed by larger pairs, and in honestly is spewing. And again, if you bet 1/8th stack pre flop as a 3 bet, 88 does not have enough set equity. So either he plays fit or fold with 88 (tries to hit a set without the odds, -EV), or he assumes the player has AK, winning a cbet when it misses, and gets stacked when opp has a larger pair (also -EV).
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