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Old 11-02-2007, 04:37 AM
thepizzlefosho thepizzlefosho is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: not winning at SD
Posts: 895
Default Re: Check raised on the turn

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in a 6BB pot giving a free card to a 10 outer is _very_ expensive.

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can you make basic assumptions and show some math to prove this statement?

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i didn't think i was making a controversial statement [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
a 10 outer comes in roughly 1/5. so his equity share in the pot is 1.2BB. if you bet and he calls, his equity share in the new pot is 8/5 = 1.4 BB, but that includes 1BB of the extra money he had to put in, so by charging him to draw you reduce the equity share from 1.2BB to 0.4BB, i.e. giving him a free card costs roughtly .8BB

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your math needs to take into account the times when he c/r bluffs you out of the pot, and the times when you collect a bluff bet on the river. I don't know how to do this because its late and I'm lazy, but checking behind and calling on a safe river here cant be too horrible against a very aggressive player that will take shots at you on the river.

that being said I prolly still b/f the turn most of the time.
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